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Beckwith's Blog

URL: http://www.jeremybeckwith.com

Feed: http://www.jeremybeckwith.com/feed/

Type: Individual

Last sync: 11 Hours, 32 Minutes ago

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Latest posts
ECONOMIC AND MARKETS OUTLOOK FOR 2014 NEW
Beckwith's Blog 2 Months, 1 Week, 1 Day, 7 Hours, 22 Minutes ago
Economic outlook Five years on from interest rates being cut to almost zero in most Western economies, and the introduction of QE programmes in the US, UK and Japan, the global economy finally seems to be moving onto a more secure footing.  Risk...
China Gold; Asia Hold NEW
Beckwith's Blog 5 Months, 1 Week, 3 Days, 4 Hours, 55 Minutes ago
One of the themes emerging from the Chinese press in recent weeks has been their call for the world economy to become “de-Americanised”.  This was especially apposite during the debt ceiling crisis when it appeared possible that the...
Banking Matters NEW
Beckwith's Blog 6 Months, 2 Weeks, 1 Day, 20 Hours, 53 Minutes ago
Healthy banks are a critical ingredient in the economic infrastructure that underpins growth and equity market performance.  Today the healthiest banks are found in Japan and Asia and the weakest in the Eurozone.  Thus banks in Japan and As...
Syria – Assad situation NEW
Beckwith's Blog 7 Months, 2 Weeks, 3 Days, 5 Hours, 53 Minutes ago
Syria is a secular state, but the religious breakdown of the Syrian population is approximately 74% Sunni Muslims, 16% Shia Muslims, 10% Christian (source – CIA World Factbook).  However, the al-Assad family which has ruled Syria since 197...
The German dilemma NEW
Beckwith's Blog 7 Months, 2 Weeks, 4 Days, 12 Hours, 22 Minutes ago
Since the drama of the Italian election in the spring, European politics have been remarkably quiet.  This has been by design – the countries who would like Germany to provide money or ease policy to support their beleaguered economies hav...
UK Recovery – Green Shoots, but Weak Roots? NEW
Beckwith's Blog 7 Months, 3 Weeks, 6 Days, 11 Hours, 31 Minutes ago
In June I published “UK Economy – Green Shoots” anticipating the improvement in the economy that has become clearer to see in the last few months. Data for the second quarter showed growth of 0.6%, a very healthy pace, house pr...
Get Real (Estate) NEW
Beckwith's Blog 8 Months, 2 Weeks, 5 Days, 1 Hour, 32 Minutes ago
Returns from the UK commercial real estate market have arrived at a critical inflection point.  A year ago, the average rental yield on commercial property across all regions and types of property was 6% per annum.  However, capital values...
The Global Monetary Policy Kaleidoscope NEW
Beckwith's Blog 8 Months, 4 Weeks, 1 Day, 18 Hours, 53 Minutes ago
In 2009, in the face of a global economic crisis, the major economies of the world came together and acted in concert to ease monetary policy aggressively.  Together with fiscal stimulus in the US and China, these policies helped to prevent the...
Fed up – down with QE? NEW
Beckwith's Blog 9 Months, 1 Week, 6 Days, 13 Hours ago
Ben Bernanke’s discussion of the Fed’s policy intentions in the press conference following the Federal Reserve meeting on June 19 was a shock to markets, with all asset classes around the world falling sharply in response.  His remar...
A believer in the Abe lever – Japanese shares NEW
Beckwith's Blog 10 Months, 6 Days, 53 Minutes ago
The end of bear markets are periods when investors are delighted that they do not own a certain type of asset.  This usually means that the performance has been very poor for a long period of time, and for reasons that most investors believe wil...
UK economy – green shoots NEW
Beckwith's Blog 10 Months, 2 Weeks, 3 Days, 2 Hours, 24 Minutes ago
Over the last ten quarters to March 2013, the UK economy has produced essentially zero growth due to a combination of (i) the UK government’s austerity plans encompassing both spending cuts and tax increases, (ii) severe economic weakness in th...
Cyprus – who next? NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 2 Weeks, 5 Days, 10 Hours, 26 Minutes ago
The starkest lesson that should be taken from the Cyprus crisis from all in the eurozone is that no bank deposit is guaranteed.  It is always ultimately a loan from the depositor to the bank with the possibility that your government may mitigate...
Eur-out NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 1 Month, 6 Days, 14 Hours, 44 Minutes ago
For the last quarter of a century, Germany has been open to monetary union with the rest of Europe, provided that three conditions were satisfied.  These are (i) no bailouts of other countries who were also in such a monetary union, (ii) the Cen...
Q to reduce bonds NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 1 Month, 3 Weeks, 5 Days, 13 Hours, 56 Minutes ago
In the 1970s, the British comedian, Spike Milligan devised the Q series.  This was a surreal comedy show, which when any particular sketch had come to an end without a suitable punchline, the actors would then wander around saying “What ar...
China – now the world’s most important trading nation NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 2 Months, 4 Days, 6 Hours, 18 Minutes ago
Recent data have shown that in 2012, China overtook the USA to become the world’s most important trading nation. On the basis of aggregating total imports and total exports, China’s total international trade amounted to $3.87 trillion, an...
Low growth; more jobs? NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 2 Months, 2 Weeks, 12 Hours, 59 Minutes ago
Over the ten complete quarters that the current UK government has been in power, economic growth has been minus 3%, but total employment has risen by 1%.  For the last calendar year, the data show the size of the economy as unchanged but total e...
Not so Sterling NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 2 Months, 3 Weeks, 4 Days, 11 Hours, 19 Minutes ago
All three of the major credit rating agencies, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch, have the UK rated at AAA but with a negative outlook.  A fourth, Dagong, a Chinese-owned rating agency, already has the UK at only A+, four notc...
Weak Yen weakens Germany NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 2 Months, 4 Weeks, 1 Day, 7 Hours, 43 Minutes ago
Germany, the powerhouse economy of the Eurozone, recently announced 2012 GDP growth of only 0.5%, and that it expected 2013 to deliver only 0.4% growth.  At a time when most of rest of the Eurozone is undergoing policies of austerity and reducti...
America’s cliffhanger NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 3 Months, 2 Weeks, 2 Days, 18 Minutes ago
The US fiscal cliff agreement, which passed through Congress on the first day of the year, showed most US politicians in a bad light.  Only at the very last minute before significant tax increases and spending cuts would have taken effect, did all p...
2013 – Limited growth and new monetary policy regimes NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 4 Months, 13 Hours, 34 Minutes ago
As 2012 draws to a close, three things about central banks and monetary policy are becoming more apparent. Firstly, central bankers are concerned that they are being expected to fix all the ills in their economies and they believe monetary policy can...