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Beckwith's Blog

URL: http://www.jeremybeckwith.com

Feed: http://www.jeremybeckwith.com/feed/

Type: Individual

Last sync: 11 Hours, 6 Minutes ago

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Latest posts
Nippon Europe? NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Month, 1 Week, 4 Days, 9 Hours, 29 Minutes ago
Angela Merkel’s favourite set of facts about Europe are that it represents 7% of the world’s population, 25% of the world’s GDP and 50% of the world’s social spending. It is this that informs Germany’s insistence that th...
QE: Farewell or Au Revoir? NEW
Beckwith's Blog 2 Months, 2 Weeks, 3 Days, 9 Hours, 33 Minutes ago
The US policy of Quantitative Easing (“QE”) is due to end later this year. Growing uncertainty about the evolution of monetary policy as the economy strengthens is likely to contribute to increased market volatility. Should QE be bade &ld...
A Quietly Profitable First Half NEW
Beckwith's Blog 3 Months, 1 Week, 21 Hours, 9 Minutes ago
At the beginning of 2014 we forecast that investing in markets this year would be less profitable but more volatile than in 2013. So far in 2014 the first aspect of our forecast has been borne out, with most asset classes showing total returns of bet...
UK Company Shares – Go Large NEW
Beckwith's Blog 4 Months, 4 Days, 9 Hours, 3 Minutes ago
During the last 15 years, the UK’s largest companies (constituents of the FTSE 100 index) have delivered significantly lower returns than medium-sized companies (in the FTSE 250 index). We believe that this trend will now reverse over the next...
Gilts or Kilts NEW
Beckwith's Blog 5 Months, 2 Weeks, 4 Days, 1 Hour, 49 Minutes ago
In recent weeks the gap in opinion polls between those in favour and those against Scottish independence has narrowed from about 10% to about 5%. With some months of campaigning still to go, the vote on 18 September looks increasingly likely to be cl...
Too many bulls; not enough beef NEW
Beckwith's Blog 5 Months, 2 Weeks, 4 Days, 3 Hours, 40 Minutes ago
Since fears about the survival of the Eurozone and potential recessionary impact on the world economy reached a height in September 2011, stock markets around the world have performed strongly. For example, the MSCI World Equity Index has risen by 50...
A Stagnant Europe NEW
Beckwith's Blog 5 Months, 2 Weeks, 4 Days, 3 Hours, 43 Minutes ago
The outlook for returns from European shares for the next few years is not exciting, though the level of dividend yields is likely to support current prices, thereby limiting the downside risk in these markets.   The investment implications...
ECONOMIC AND MARKETS OUTLOOK FOR 2014 NEW
Beckwith's Blog 8 Months, 1 Week, 17 Hours, 21 Minutes ago
Economic outlook Five years on from interest rates being cut to almost zero in most Western economies, and the introduction of QE programmes in the US, UK and Japan, the global economy finally seems to be moving onto a more secure footing.  Risk...
China Gold; Asia Hold NEW
Beckwith's Blog 11 Months, 1 Week, 2 Days, 14 Hours, 54 Minutes ago
One of the themes emerging from the Chinese press in recent weeks has been their call for the world economy to become “de-Americanised”.  This was especially apposite during the debt ceiling crisis when it appeared possible that the...
Banking Matters NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 2 Weeks, 1 Day, 6 Hours, 52 Minutes ago
Healthy banks are a critical ingredient in the economic infrastructure that underpins growth and equity market performance.  Today the healthiest banks are found in Japan and Asia and the weakest in the Eurozone.  Thus banks in Japan and As...
Syria – Assad situation NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 1 Month, 2 Weeks, 2 Days, 15 Hours, 52 Minutes ago
Syria is a secular state, but the religious breakdown of the Syrian population is approximately 74% Sunni Muslims, 16% Shia Muslims, 10% Christian (source – CIA World Factbook).  However, the al-Assad family which has ruled Syria since 197...
The German dilemma NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 1 Month, 2 Weeks, 3 Days, 22 Hours, 21 Minutes ago
Since the drama of the Italian election in the spring, European politics have been remarkably quiet.  This has been by design – the countries who would like Germany to provide money or ease policy to support their beleaguered economies hav...
UK Recovery – Green Shoots, but Weak Roots? NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 1 Month, 3 Weeks, 5 Days, 21 Hours, 30 Minutes ago
In June I published “UK Economy – Green Shoots” anticipating the improvement in the economy that has become clearer to see in the last few months. Data for the second quarter showed growth of 0.6%, a very healthy pace, house pr...
Get Real (Estate) NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 2 Months, 2 Weeks, 4 Days, 11 Hours, 32 Minutes ago
Returns from the UK commercial real estate market have arrived at a critical inflection point.  A year ago, the average rental yield on commercial property across all regions and types of property was 6% per annum.  However, capital values...
The Global Monetary Policy Kaleidoscope NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 2 Months, 4 Weeks, 1 Day, 4 Hours, 52 Minutes ago
In 2009, in the face of a global economic crisis, the major economies of the world came together and acted in concert to ease monetary policy aggressively.  Together with fiscal stimulus in the US and China, these policies helped to prevent the...
Fed up – down with QE? NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 3 Months, 1 Week, 5 Days, 23 Hours ago
Ben Bernanke’s discussion of the Fed’s policy intentions in the press conference following the Federal Reserve meeting on June 19 was a shock to markets, with all asset classes around the world falling sharply in response.  His remar...
A believer in the Abe lever – Japanese shares NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 4 Months, 5 Days, 10 Hours, 53 Minutes ago
The end of bear markets are periods when investors are delighted that they do not own a certain type of asset.  This usually means that the performance has been very poor for a long period of time, and for reasons that most investors believe wil...
UK economy – green shoots NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 4 Months, 2 Weeks, 2 Days, 12 Hours, 24 Minutes ago
Over the last ten quarters to March 2013, the UK economy has produced essentially zero growth due to a combination of (i) the UK government’s austerity plans encompassing both spending cuts and tax increases, (ii) severe economic weakness in th...
Cyprus – who next? NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 6 Months, 2 Weeks, 4 Days, 20 Hours, 26 Minutes ago
The starkest lesson that should be taken from the Cyprus crisis from all in the eurozone is that no bank deposit is guaranteed.  It is always ultimately a loan from the depositor to the bank with the possibility that your government may mitigate...
Eur-out NEW
Beckwith's Blog 1 Year, 7 Months, 6 Days, 43 Minutes ago
For the last quarter of a century, Germany has been open to monetary union with the rest of Europe, provided that three conditions were satisfied.  These are (i) no bailouts of other countries who were also in such a monetary union, (ii) the Cen...