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A Fistful of Euros

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Latest posts
Game with no equilibrium NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Days, 11 Hours, 35 Minutes ago
It’s worth reading Irish state broadcaster RTE’s full story on their astonishing interview with the Greek finance minister.
Low payoff from structural reforms in Greece? NEW
A Fistful of Euros 3 Days, 7 Hours, 22 Minutes ago
The IMF has released a preliminary debt sustainability analysis for Greece — undertaken before this week’s cash crisis but after its adjustments to the numbers to take account of the deterioration in the relationship between Greece and it...
Europe muddles through: Mediterranean edition NEW
A Fistful of Euros 5 Days, 14 Hours, 23 Minutes ago
This Politico piece of mine argues that Europe has talked itself around to sharing the effort to rescue shipwrecked migrants in the Mediterranean, having floated a variety of draconian threats to justify getting warships down there and then quietly b...
Greece and Iceland, controls and controls NEW
A Fistful of Euros 6 Days, 13 Hours, 12 Minutes ago
Now that Greece has controls on outtake from banks, capital controls, many commentators are comparing Greece to Iceland. There is little to compare regarding the nature of capital controls in these two countries. The controls are different in every r...
Club within a club NEW
A Fistful of Euros 1 Week, 1 Day, 6 Hours, 54 Minutes ago
Reuters – One official said Eurogroup chair Jeroen Dijsselbloem would make a statement following the meeting of the 19 before a further meeting of the 18 with creditor institutions, including the ECB and IMF. Greece is excluded from that latter...
Very, very foolish words. NEW
A Fistful of Euros 1 Month, 57 Minutes ago
This FAZ story, suggesting that Angela Merkel and Wolfgang Schäuble are not on the best of terms over negotiations with Greece and that Wolfi might even resign, should be read in the context of Merkel’s past career. Schäuble wiederum...
Austrian banks and FX lending: tip-toeing authorities and households as carry traders (part 1) NEW
A Fistful of Euros 1 Month, 5 Days, 1 Hour, 45 Minutes ago
Austria was one of the eleven founding members of the Eurozone in January 1999 but the Austrians never quite put their money where their mouth was: Austria is the only euro country where households flocked to take out foreign currency … Contin...
Are The IMF and the EU at Loggerheads Over Greece? NEW
A Fistful of Euros 1 Month, 2 Weeks, 4 Days, 6 Hours, 57 Minutes ago
Everything has a cost, or so the story goes, especially time. In the Greek case we now know an additional item on the mounting bill: the country is back in recession. The issue is who – apart of course from … Continue reading →...
Occupational shifts in the UK NEW
A Fistful of Euros 1 Month, 3 Weeks, 1 Hour, 43 Minutes ago
Following up on the ideas in this post, here’s an interesting chart from the Bank of England Inflation Report. In our model, people advance along at least locally optimal career paths in expansions, and then have to find a new … Continue...
If Greece Had Not Existed, Europe’s Leaders Would Have Had to Invent It NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Months, 12 Hours, 26 Minutes ago
He must be chosen from among you as a scapegoat. Hipponax One of the more intriguing aspects of the whole modern Greek drama is the tragicomic way the country seems to be constantly condemned to live out well known themes … Continue reading &r...
This time, no different from earlier: FX risk hidden from borrowers NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Months, 1 Week, 7 Hours, 56 Minutes ago
The Swiss Franc unpegging from the euro 15 January this year brought the risk of foreign currency borrowing for unhedged borrowers yet again to the fore. In Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe lending in Swiss Franc and other foreign currency,...
ECB Taper News NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Months, 2 Weeks, 4 Days, 10 Hours, 54 Minutes ago
What Business Insider’s Mike Bird somewhat ironically calls #euroboom2015 seems to be well and truly with us. The WSJ’s Simon Nixon spelled  it out for us in his “QE is Working Better than the ECB Dared Hope” article:&nbs...
The snakes-and-ladders model, again NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Months, 2 Weeks, 6 Days, 17 Hours, 33 Minutes ago
They say the first rule of editing is “kill your darlings”. The first rule of science, however, is “sacrifice your darlings humanely in accordance with the research ethics committee guidelines, but keep their brains for further inve...
Is The Crisis Now History In Spain? NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Months, 3 Weeks, 21 Hours, 28 Minutes ago
Mariano Rajoy is a man who is not shy when it comes to being controversial, as the storm surrounding his stance over the recent Greek bailout negotiations clearly illustrates (and here). So it is perhaps not surprising that he did … Continue r...
Testing the snakes-and-ladders model NEW
A Fistful of Euros 3 Months, 7 Hours, 37 Minutes ago
Just to follow up on this post, a simple test of the model would be to check if the ECEC (i.e. not normalised for compositional shifts) wages series is strongly correlated with the output gap. Output gap is easy enough … Continue reading &rarr...
A little model of the labour market. NEW
A Fistful of Euros 3 Months, 4 Days, 23 Hours, 17 Minutes ago
JW Mason has an interesting discovery among the data. Specifically, it looks like the US data series for wages, normalised for shifts in the composition of jobs, is much less cyclical than the raw data. In other words, the business … Continue...
Is Finland’s Economy Suffering From Secular Stagnation? NEW
A Fistful of Euros 3 Months, 1 Week, 2 Days, 5 Hours, 52 Minutes ago
“After the Great Depression, secular stagnation turned out to be a figment of economists’ imaginations……it is still too soon to tell if this will also be the case after the Great Recession. However, the risks of secular stag...
When Will The ECB Start To Taper? NEW
A Fistful of Euros 3 Months, 2 Weeks, 5 Days, 3 Hours, 7 Minutes ago
What matters isn’t what you think should happen, it’s what others think will happen that counts. Funny days these, the world seems to be constantly turning upside down. I could be talking about the arrival of negative interest rates in &h...
Why Is Spain’s Population Loss An Economic Problem? NEW
A Fistful of Euros 3 Months, 3 Weeks, 5 Days, 6 Hours, 17 Minutes ago
“Growth theory was invented to provide a systematic way to talk about and to compare equilibrium paths for the economy. In that task it succeeded reasonably well. In doing so, however, it failed to come to grips adequately with an … Cont...
Cyprus and Iceland: a tale of two capital controls NEW
A Fistful of Euros 4 Months, 12 Hours, 22 Minutes ago
Both in Cyprus and Iceland foreign funds flowed into the islands, in the end forcing the government to make use of extreme measures when the tide turned. These measures are normally called ‘capital controls’ which in these two cases hides...