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A Fistful of Euros

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Austrian banks and FX lending: tip-toeing authorities and households as carry traders (part 1) NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Days, 2 Hours, 16 Minutes ago
Austria was one of the eleven founding members of the Eurozone in January 1999 but the Austrians never quite put their money where their mouth was: Austria is the only euro country where households flocked to take out foreign currency … Contin...
Are The IMF and the EU at Loggerheads Over Greece? NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Weeks, 1 Day, 7 Hours, 28 Minutes ago
Everything has a cost, or so the story goes, especially time. In the Greek case we now know an additional item on the mounting bill: the country is back in recession. The issue is who – apart of course from … Continue reading →...
Occupational shifts in the UK NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Weeks, 4 Days, 2 Hours, 13 Minutes ago
Following up on the ideas in this post, here’s an interesting chart from the Bank of England Inflation Report. In our model, people advance along at least locally optimal career paths in expansions, and then have to find a new … Continue...
If Greece Had Not Existed, Europe’s Leaders Would Have Had to Invent It NEW
A Fistful of Euros 3 Weeks, 6 Days, 22 Hours, 56 Minutes ago
He must be chosen from among you as a scapegoat. Hipponax One of the more intriguing aspects of the whole modern Greek drama is the tragicomic way the country seems to be constantly condemned to live out well known themes … Continue reading &r...
This time, no different from earlier: FX risk hidden from borrowers NEW
A Fistful of Euros 1 Month, 4 Days, 8 Hours, 27 Minutes ago
The Swiss Franc unpegging from the euro 15 January this year brought the risk of foreign currency borrowing for unhedged borrowers yet again to the fore. In Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe lending in Swiss Franc and other foreign currency,...
ECB Taper News NEW
A Fistful of Euros 1 Month, 2 Weeks, 1 Day, 11 Hours, 25 Minutes ago
What Business Insider’s Mike Bird somewhat ironically calls #euroboom2015 seems to be well and truly with us. The WSJ’s Simon Nixon spelled  it out for us in his “QE is Working Better than the ECB Dared Hope” article:&nbs...
The snakes-and-ladders model, again NEW
A Fistful of Euros 1 Month, 2 Weeks, 3 Days, 18 Hours, 3 Minutes ago
They say the first rule of editing is “kill your darlings”. The first rule of science, however, is “sacrifice your darlings humanely in accordance with the research ethics committee guidelines, but keep their brains for further inve...
Is The Crisis Now History In Spain? NEW
A Fistful of Euros 1 Month, 2 Weeks, 4 Days, 21 Hours, 58 Minutes ago
Mariano Rajoy is a man who is not shy when it comes to being controversial, as the storm surrounding his stance over the recent Greek bailout negotiations clearly illustrates (and here). So it is perhaps not surprising that he did … Continue r...
Testing the snakes-and-ladders model NEW
A Fistful of Euros 1 Month, 3 Weeks, 6 Days, 18 Hours, 8 Minutes ago
Just to follow up on this post, a simple test of the model would be to check if the ECEC (i.e. not normalised for compositional shifts) wages series is strongly correlated with the output gap. Output gap is easy enough … Continue reading &rarr...
A little model of the labour market. NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Months, 1 Day, 23 Hours, 48 Minutes ago
JW Mason has an interesting discovery among the data. Specifically, it looks like the US data series for wages, normalised for shifts in the composition of jobs, is much less cyclical than the raw data. In other words, the business … Continue...
Is Finland’s Economy Suffering From Secular Stagnation? NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Months, 6 Days, 6 Hours, 23 Minutes ago
“After the Great Depression, secular stagnation turned out to be a figment of economists’ imaginations……it is still too soon to tell if this will also be the case after the Great Recession. However, the risks of secular stag...
When Will The ECB Start To Taper? NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Months, 2 Weeks, 2 Days, 3 Hours, 38 Minutes ago
What matters isn’t what you think should happen, it’s what others think will happen that counts. Funny days these, the world seems to be constantly turning upside down. I could be talking about the arrival of negative interest rates in &h...
Why Is Spain’s Population Loss An Economic Problem? NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, 6 Hours, 48 Minutes ago
“Growth theory was invented to provide a systematic way to talk about and to compare equilibrium paths for the economy. In that task it succeeded reasonably well. In doing so, however, it failed to come to grips adequately with an … Cont...
Cyprus and Iceland: a tale of two capital controls NEW
A Fistful of Euros 2 Months, 3 Weeks, 6 Days, 22 Hours, 53 Minutes ago
Both in Cyprus and Iceland foreign funds flowed into the islands, in the end forcing the government to make use of extreme measures when the tide turned. These measures are normally called ‘capital controls’ which in these two cases hides...
Does The Arrival Of Negative Interest Rates Change the Attractivess of EMU? NEW
A Fistful of Euros 3 Months, 1 Day, 17 Hours, 33 Minutes ago
This is the second in a series of posts (first one here) in  which I try to argue that the balance between costs and benefits of belonging to the European monetary union has shifted in the post crisis world, especially … Continue reading...
Pay no attention to the social democrat behind the curtain. NEW
A Fistful of Euros 3 Months, 5 Days, 14 Hours, 13 Minutes ago
Perhaps we’ve been watching the wrong German politician throughout the whole Greece/Eurogroup drama. Usually, the Vice-Chancellor of Germany is one of those posts that comes with a lot more dignity than it does power, like the US vice-presidenc...
The good, the bad and the foreign: Icelandic lesson for stabilising the Greek banks* NEW
A Fistful of Euros 3 Months, 5 Days, 17 Hours, 3 Minutes ago
Ever since 2010, when Greece first turned to the IMF for assistance, the crisis handling has been characterised by too little too late, which is why Greece is still grabbing the headlines. The Greek banks are a serious part of … Continue readi...
Send lawyers and money NEW
A Fistful of Euros 3 Months, 5 Days, 22 Hours, 3 Minutes ago
Reuters — Greece admitted on Wednesday it will struggle to make debt repayments to the IMF and the European Central Bank this year as Germany’s finance minister voiced open doubts about Athens’ trustworthiness. A day after euro zone...
EuroGroup – Money For Nothing And Your Debt For Free? NEW
A Fistful of Euros 3 Months, 6 Days, 18 Hours, 38 Minutes ago
There’s an interesting question about “analysis” which confronts anyone who seriously wants to engage in it: do you organize your focus around what you want to happen (practical policy emphasis) or do you concentrate your efforts in...
Cyprus: an island in search of a saga to learn from NEW
A Fistful of Euros 3 Months, 1 Week, 6 Days, 23 Hours, 7 Minutes ago
Why do the inhabitants of an EU country prefer to keep cash amounting to ca. 6% of GDP hidden at home? Badly burnt after the banking collapse in March 2013 Cypriots neither trust their government nor banks to keep their … Continue reading &rar...